СТАТИСТИЧЕСКОЕ ИССЛЕДОВАНИЕ И ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЕ ЧИСЛЕННОСТИ БРА-КОВ И РАЗВОДОВ НА ТЕРРИТОРИИ РФ
Ключевые слова:
численность браков, численность разводов, возраст, женщины, мужчины, коэффициент детерминации, регрессионная модель, анализ
Аннотация
Данная статья посвящена исследованию изменения численности браков и разводов на территории России. В работе представлены результаты исследования распределения количества браков и разводов на территории Российской Федерации более чем за 60 лет, для чего проанализированы данные с 1960 по 2022 г. Подобраны регрессионные модели, которые наиболее эффективно описывают численность браков и разводов. В рассмотренной статье построен прогноз численности браков и разводов на территории РФ на 2024 г. Результаты говорят о том, что к 2024 г. будет наблюдаться рост численности браков и разводов на 0,82% и 2,69%, соответственно, по сравнению с 2022 г.
Литература
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2. Khachatryan L.A. Divorce is the flip side of marriage. Bulletin of Perm University. 2010. N 1 (1). P. 79-98. (in Russian).
3. Definition and essence of the concepts “family” and “marriage” in modern science and law
https://studopedia.ru/3_13488_opredelenie-i-sushchnost-ponyatiy-semya-i-brak-v-sovremennoy -nauke-i-prave.html (accessed 19.08.2023).
4. Polygamy and monogamy. https://studfile.net/preview. (accessed: 19.08.2023).
5. Divorce. Concept, procedure, legal consequences. https://studfile.net/preview/5772148 (accessed 19.08.2023).
6. Divorce. https://pravo123.ru/stati/81/rastorzhenie-braka (accessed: 19.08.2023).
7. Why Russians are getting divorced.
https://journal.tinkoff.ru/stat-divorce / (accessed 10.08.2023).
8. Vishnevsky A. Demographic revolution changes the reproductive strategy of the species "Homo sapiens". Demographic review. 2014. V. 1. N 1. P. 6-33. (in Russian).
9. Sinelnikov A.B. Transformation of marriage and fertility in Russia. Population. 2019. N 2. P. 26-39.
10. Federal State Statistics Service.
https://rosstat.gov.ru/folder. (accessed 10.08.2023).
11. Kulentsan A.L., Marchuk N.A. Analysis of the share of employed and unemployed persons among the male and female population of the Russian Federation. Socio-economic and technical systems: research, design, optimization. 2020. N 3 (86). P. 64-69. (in Russian).
12. Meshalkin V.P., Shinkevich A.I., Malysheva T.V. System analysis of the efficiency of the use of secondary energy resources in a circular economy. ChemChemTech [Izv. Vyssh. Uchebn. Zaved. Khim. Khim. Tekhnol.]. 2021. V. 64. N 8. P. 79-89. (in Russian). DOI: 10.6060/ivkkt.20216408.6433.
13. Sizova O.V., Berendeeva A.B., Rychikhina N.S. Using the modeling method in the analysis of mortality factors of the able-bodied population in the regions of Russia. Modern high-tech technologies. Regional application. 2020. N 2 (62). P. 62-73. (in Russian).
14. Kulentsan A.L., Marchuk N.A. The experience of using correlation and regression analysis in the study of morbidity in children aged 0-14 years. Modern high-tech technologies. Regional application. 2022. N 2 (70). P. 69-77. (in Russian). DOI: 10.6060/snt.20227002.0009. (in Russian).
15. Cherpitskiy S.N., Korolev L.V., Tarshis M.Yu. Mathematical modeling of the bulk materials mixing process in a drum-blade mixer. ChemChemTech [Izv. Vyssh. Uchebn. Zaved. Khim. Khim. Tekhnol.]. 2022. V. 65. N 9. P. 112120. DOI: 10.6060/ivkkt.20226509.6504. DOI: 10.6060/ivkkt.20226509.6504.
16. Kulentsan A.L., Marchuk N.A. Modeling and forecasting the incidence of the population of Ivanovo. Modern high-tech technologies. Regional application. 2022. N 4 (72). P. 75-83. (in Russian). DOI: 10.6060/snt.20227204.00010.
17. Sizova O.V., Zavyalova A.I., Smirnova O.A. Statistical analysis of employment in the regions of Russia. Modern high-tech technologies. Regional application. 2021. N 3 (67). P. 37-45. DOI:10.6060/snt.20216703.0005.
18. Barinov M.A. The relationship between factors of socio-economic development and the volume of gross regional product. Modern high-tech technologies. Regional application. 2020. N 1 (61). P. 8-13. (in Russian).
19. Kulentsan A.L., Marchuk N.A. Analysis of the depopulation of the population in the Russian Federation. Modern high-tech technologies. Regional application. 2021. N 2 (66). P. 44-49. DOI:10.6060/snt.20216602.0006.
Опубликован
2023-10-15
Как цитировать
Львович, К., Александровна, М., Владимирович, Г., Юрьевич, Ш., & Миайлович, П. (2023). СТАТИСТИЧЕСКОЕ ИССЛЕДОВАНИЕ И ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЕ ЧИСЛЕННОСТИ БРА-КОВ И РАЗВОДОВ НА ТЕРРИТОРИИ РФ. Современные наукоёмкие технологии. Региональное приложение, 75(3), 107-112. извлечено от https://snt-isuct.ru/article/view/5469
Выпуск
Раздел
Инженерно-технически науки, машиностроение и технологии
