МОДЕЛИРОВАНИЕ И ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЕ ЗАБОЛЕВАЕМОСТИ НАСЕЛЕНИЯ Г. ИВАНОВО
Ключевые слова:
заболеваемость населения, нервная система, органы дыхания, кожа и подкожная клетчатка, коэффициент парной корреляции, линейная многофакторная модель, модель в пространстве состояний, регрессионно-дифференциальная модель
Аннотация
Здоровье населения представляет собой интегральный показатель качества жизни в объективных ее проявлениях. Оно напрямую влияет на социально-культурные и со-циально-экономические показатели развития населения. В последнее время все чаще наблюда-ется увеличение заболеваемости органов дыхания, нервной системы и т.д. В связи с этим осо-бую актуальность приобретает изучение воздействия количества выбросов в атмосферный воздух, содержащих тяжелые металлы. Поэтому целью данной работы являлось моделирова-ние и прогнозирование заболеваемости нервной системы, органов дыхания и кожи населения г. Иваново. В данной статье показано, что наблюдается сильная корреляция между количе-ством взвешенных веществ (СО, NO, SO2, NO2, C6H5OH, CH2O, C20H12) и заболеваемостью нерв-ной системы, органов дыхания и кожи у жителей г. Иваново. Произведенный анализ позволил построить линейную многофакторную модель и модель в пространстве состояний. Показано, что данные модели могут быть использованы для прогнозирования заболеваемости нервной системы, органов дыхания и кожи у жителей г. Иваново (сумма квадратов отклонений для линейной многофакторной модели в этом случае равна 0,459, для модели в пространстве состоя-ний - 1,298). Также была построена регрессионно-дифференциальная модель изменения заболе-ваемости нервной системы, органов дыхания и кожи у жителей г. Иваново. Для данной мо-дели сумма квадратов отклонений равна 0,078. Это говорит о том, что регрессионно-диффе-ренциальная модель наилучшим образом описывает зависимость заболеваемости населения от выбросов в окружающую среду. На основе полученных данных была построена прогнозная модель по всем типам заболеваний у населения на 2022 г.
Литература
Tsinker M.Yu. Statistical modeling for assessing the influ-ence of environmental factors on the indicator indicators of the health of the population of the Russian Federation. Population health and habitat. 2013. N 11 (248). P. 10-13. (in Russian).
2. Protasov V.F. Ecology, health and environmental protection in Russia. M.: finance and statistics. 2000. 672 p. (in Russian).
3. Kazakovtsev V.P. Assessment of the influence of environ-mental factors on the morbidity of the upper respiratory tract of the population of an industrial city. In the collection: Inte-gration of medical science and practice: results, achieve-ments and prospects. Materials of the conference. 2013. P. 88-90. (in Russian).
4. Kulentsan A.L., Marchuk N.A. The experience of using correlation and regression analysis in the study of morbidity in children aged 0-14 years. Modern high-tech technologies. Regional application. 2022. N 2 (70). P. 69-77. (in Russian). DOI: 10.6060/snt.20227002.0009.
5. Kulentsan A.L., Marchuk N.A. Impact on humans of pol-lutants in Moscow. ChemChemTech [Izv. Vyssh. Uchebn. Zaved. Khim. Khim. Tekhnol.]. 2022. V. 65. N 9. P. 129137. (in Russian). DOI: 10.6060/ivkkt.20226509.6619.
6. Poshentseva Yu.S. Management of differentiation of socio-economic systems of regions based on mobilization of internal and attraction of external development resources. Pro-ceedings of the Southwestern State University. 2017. N 2 (71). P. 137-149. (in Russian).
7. Kulentsan A.L., Marchuk N.A. Analysis of crop produc-tion volumes in various farms. Bulletin of the Mari State Uni-versity. The series "Agricultural sciences. Economic Sciences". 2020. V. 6. N 1. P. 92-100. (in Russian). DOI: 10.30914/2411-9687-2020-6-1-92-100.
Marchuk N.A., Talanova V.A., Kulentsan A.L. Analysis of emissions of pollutants by various sources. Modern Science. 2022. N 2-1. P. 35-39. (in Russian).
9. Kulentsan A.L., Marchuk N.A. Analysis of the impact of pollu-tants on humans and the environment. ChemChemTech [Izv. Vyssh. Uchebn. Zaved. Khim. Khim. Tekhnol.]. 2022. V. 65. N 1. P. 116121. (in Russian). DOI: 10.6060/ivkkt.20226501.6531.
10. Zatonsky A.V., Tugashova L.G., Barova A.E. Modeling and forecasting the development of internal and external tourism in Turkey. Applied mathematics and management is-sues. 2019. N 2. P. 135-150. (in Russian). DOI: 10.15593/2499-9873/2019.2.07.
11. Furda L.V., Smalchenko D.E., Titov E.N., Lebedeva O.E. Thermocatalytic destruction of polypropylene in the presence of aluminosilicates. ChemChemTech [Izv. Vyssh. Uchebn. Zaved. Khim. Khim. Tekhnol.]. 2020. V. 63. N 6. P. 85-89 (in Russian). DOI: 10.6060/ivkkt.20206306.6202.
12. Solovyeva A.A., Pham T.T., Lebedeva O.E., Ustinova M.N. Horseradish peroxidase catalyzed degradation of bro-mophenol blue dye. ChemChemTech [Izv. Vyssh. Uchebn. Zaved. Khim. Khim. Tekhnol.]. 2021. V. 64. N 1. P. 9398. (in Russian). DOI: 10.6060/ivkkt.20216401.6267.
13. Pivovarova N.A., Berberova N.T., Shinkar E.V., Akishina E.S. Promising technology for removal and disposal of hydro-gen sulfide from fuel oil. ChemChemTech [Izv. Vyssh. Uchebn. Zaved. Khim. Khim. Tekhnol.]. 2020. V. 63. N 8. P. 3953. (in Russian). DOI: 10.6060/ivkkt.20206308.6143.
14. Feofanova M.A., Radin A.S., Malysheva Yu.A., Krylov A.A., Nikolskiy V.M. Application of Keggin type phospho-tungstovanadic heteropoly acid as sensitive material for car-bon monoxide sensor. ChemChemTech [Izv. Vyssh. Uchebn. Zaved. Khim. Khim. Tekhnol.]. 2021. V. 64. N 2. P. 6265. (in Russian). DOI: 10.6060/ivkkt.20216402.6281.
15. Nushtaeva A.V., Vilkova N.G. Hydrophobization of silica parti-cles with various cationic surfactants. ChemChemTech [Izv. Vyssh. Uchebn. Zaved. Khim. Khim. Tekhnol.]. 2021. V. 64. N 3. P. 41-45. (in Russian). DOI: 10.6060/ivkkt.20216403.6321.
16. Efimova N.V. The influence of environmental factors on the respiratory morbidity of the population of the northern re-gions. Modern problems of science and education. 2016. N 6. 74 p. (in Russian).
17. Chashchin V.P. Characteristics of the main risk factors for health disorders of the population living in the territory of active nature use in the Arctic. Human ecology. 2014. N 1. P. 3-12. (in Russian).
18. Gilman A. Public health and the effects of contaminants. In: Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP). Human health in the Arctic. Oslo, Norway. 2009. P. 89-143.
19. Karaulova A.V. Clinical immunology. M. MIA. 1999. P. 318-321. (in Russian).
20. Mikheeva G.H., Gataullin I.G., Biktemirova R.G. The ecological situation as a risk factor for the formation of the incidence of oncological pathology in the Ulyanovsk region. Volga Oncological Bulletin. 2012. N 4. P. 12-14. (in Russian).
21. Kuletsan A.L., Marchuk N.A. Analysis of the use of fresh water in the Russian Federation. Ros. Khim. Zh. 2022. V. 66. N 2. P. 7177 (in Russian). DOI: 10.6060/rcj.2022662.11.
22. Bondin V.I., Pochekaeva V.I., Popova T.V. Formation of the state of health of the child population in territories with high anthropogenic load. Valeologiya. 2011. N 4. P. 7-10. (in Russian).
23. Gorshkov A.I., Cherkasova L.V., Osipova E.M. Complex hygienic assessment of the environment and children's health in the Northern Administrative District of Moscow. Hygiene and sanitation. 2012. N 2. P. 77-79. (in Russian).
Marchuk N.A., Kulentsan A.L. The influence of pollutants on morbidity in the Southern Federal District. Modern high-tech technologies. Regional application. 2020. N 3 (63). P. 129-138. (in Russian).
25. Makrushin N.A., Gartman V.L., Zamuruev O.V., Weyn-bender A.Ya., Dulnev A.V. Influence of surface-active sub-stances on impregnation process in production of methane conversion catalysts. ChemChemTech [Izv. Vyssh. Uchebn. Zaved. Khim. Khim. Tekhnol.]. 2020. V. 63. N 8. P. 66-72 (in Russian). DOI: 10.6060/ivkkt.20206308.6075.
26. Menshova I.I., Zabolotnaya E., Chelnokov V.V., Gara-badzhiu A.V. Adsorption of organic substances using zeo-lites. ChemChemTech [Izv. Vyssh. Uchebn. Zaved. Khim. Khim. Tekhnol.]. 2021. V. 64. N 8. P. 131-138 (in Russian). DOI: 10.6060/ivkkt.20216408.6427.
27. Pugacheva I.N., Karmanov A.V., Zueva S.B., De Michelis I., Ferella F., Molokanova L.V., Vegliò F. Heavy metal re-moval by cellulose-based textile waste product. Chem-ChemTech [Izv. Vyssh. Uchebn. Zaved. Khim. Khim. Tekhnol.]. 2020. V. 63. N 2. P. 105110. (in Russian). DOI: 10.6060/ivkkt.20206302.6098.
28. Yuzbekov M.A., Yuzbekov A.K. Comprehensive assessment of the quality of life of the population in the region. Fundamental research. 2014. N 3-2. P. 349-355. (in Russian).
29. Berezin N.B., Сhevela V.V., Mezhevich Zh.V., Ivanova V.Yu. Complexation in the system zinc (II)-chrome (III)-nickel (II)-glycine-water. ChemChemTech [Izv. Vyssh. Uchebn. Zaved. Khim. Khim. Tekhnol.]. 2021. V. 64. N 11. P. 4449. DOI: 10.6060/ivkkt.20216411.6401.
30. Grigoryeva I.O., Dresvyannikov A.F. Electrochemical synthesis of dispersed barium ferrite using anodic dissolution of metal. ChemChemTech [Izv. Vyssh. Uchebn. Zaved. Khim. Khim. Tekhnol.]. 2021. V. 64. N 4. P. 5966. DOI: 10.6060/ivkkt.20216404.6315.
31. Khobotova E.B., Hraivoronska I.V., Кaliuzhna Iu.S., Ihnatenko M.I. Sorption purification of wastewater from organic dyes using granulated blast-furnace slag. Chem-ChemTech [Izv. Vyssh. Uchebn. Zaved. Khim. Khim. Tekhnol.]. 2021. V. 64. N 6. P. 8994. DOI: 10.6060/ivkkt.20216406.6302.
32. Avilova М.М., Maryeva E.A., Popova O.V., Ivanova Т.G. Molecular modeling of adsorption of pollutant gases on cad-mium-containing polyacrylonitrile. ChemChemTech [Izv. Vyssh. Uchebn. Zaved. Khim. Khim. Tekhnol.]. 2020. V. 63. N 4. P. 4954. DOI: 10.6060/ivkkt.20206304.6008.
33. Wójtowicz R., Kocewiak K., Lipin A.A. Identification of rheological properties of poly(ethylene oxide) – water solu-tions. ChemChemTech [Izv. Vyssh. Uchebn. Zaved. Khim. Khim. Tekhnol.]. 2020. V. 63. N 9. P. 8287. DOI: 10.6060/ivkkt.20206309.6236.
34. Okhlobystin A.O., Kamyshnikova A.S., Oleinikova K.V., Storozhenko V.N., Pashchenko K.P., Berberova N.T. Theoretical and experimental study of the adsorption capac-ity of transition metal acetates in the process of desulfuriza-tion of a model hydrocarbon fuel. ChemChemTech [Izv. Vyssh. Uchebn. Zaved. Khim. Khim. Tekhnol.]. 2021. V. 64. N 12. P. 98104. DOI: 10.6060/ivkkt.20216411.6518.
35. Gusev G.I., Gushchin A.A., Grinevich V.I., Rybkin V.V., Izvekova Т.V., Sharonov A.V. Treatment of wastewater containing 2,4-dichlorophenol in dielectric barrier discharge plasma. ChemChemTech [Izv. Vyssh. Uchebn. Zaved. Khim. Khim. Tekhnol.]. 2020. V. 63. N 7. P. 8894. DOI: 10.6060/ivkkt.20206307.6182.
2. Protasov V.F. Ecology, health and environmental protection in Russia. M.: finance and statistics. 2000. 672 p. (in Russian).
3. Kazakovtsev V.P. Assessment of the influence of environ-mental factors on the morbidity of the upper respiratory tract of the population of an industrial city. In the collection: Inte-gration of medical science and practice: results, achieve-ments and prospects. Materials of the conference. 2013. P. 88-90. (in Russian).
4. Kulentsan A.L., Marchuk N.A. The experience of using correlation and regression analysis in the study of morbidity in children aged 0-14 years. Modern high-tech technologies. Regional application. 2022. N 2 (70). P. 69-77. (in Russian). DOI: 10.6060/snt.20227002.0009.
5. Kulentsan A.L., Marchuk N.A. Impact on humans of pol-lutants in Moscow. ChemChemTech [Izv. Vyssh. Uchebn. Zaved. Khim. Khim. Tekhnol.]. 2022. V. 65. N 9. P. 129137. (in Russian). DOI: 10.6060/ivkkt.20226509.6619.
6. Poshentseva Yu.S. Management of differentiation of socio-economic systems of regions based on mobilization of internal and attraction of external development resources. Pro-ceedings of the Southwestern State University. 2017. N 2 (71). P. 137-149. (in Russian).
7. Kulentsan A.L., Marchuk N.A. Analysis of crop produc-tion volumes in various farms. Bulletin of the Mari State Uni-versity. The series "Agricultural sciences. Economic Sciences". 2020. V. 6. N 1. P. 92-100. (in Russian). DOI: 10.30914/2411-9687-2020-6-1-92-100.
Marchuk N.A., Talanova V.A., Kulentsan A.L. Analysis of emissions of pollutants by various sources. Modern Science. 2022. N 2-1. P. 35-39. (in Russian).
9. Kulentsan A.L., Marchuk N.A. Analysis of the impact of pollu-tants on humans and the environment. ChemChemTech [Izv. Vyssh. Uchebn. Zaved. Khim. Khim. Tekhnol.]. 2022. V. 65. N 1. P. 116121. (in Russian). DOI: 10.6060/ivkkt.20226501.6531.
10. Zatonsky A.V., Tugashova L.G., Barova A.E. Modeling and forecasting the development of internal and external tourism in Turkey. Applied mathematics and management is-sues. 2019. N 2. P. 135-150. (in Russian). DOI: 10.15593/2499-9873/2019.2.07.
11. Furda L.V., Smalchenko D.E., Titov E.N., Lebedeva O.E. Thermocatalytic destruction of polypropylene in the presence of aluminosilicates. ChemChemTech [Izv. Vyssh. Uchebn. Zaved. Khim. Khim. Tekhnol.]. 2020. V. 63. N 6. P. 85-89 (in Russian). DOI: 10.6060/ivkkt.20206306.6202.
12. Solovyeva A.A., Pham T.T., Lebedeva O.E., Ustinova M.N. Horseradish peroxidase catalyzed degradation of bro-mophenol blue dye. ChemChemTech [Izv. Vyssh. Uchebn. Zaved. Khim. Khim. Tekhnol.]. 2021. V. 64. N 1. P. 9398. (in Russian). DOI: 10.6060/ivkkt.20216401.6267.
13. Pivovarova N.A., Berberova N.T., Shinkar E.V., Akishina E.S. Promising technology for removal and disposal of hydro-gen sulfide from fuel oil. ChemChemTech [Izv. Vyssh. Uchebn. Zaved. Khim. Khim. Tekhnol.]. 2020. V. 63. N 8. P. 3953. (in Russian). DOI: 10.6060/ivkkt.20206308.6143.
14. Feofanova M.A., Radin A.S., Malysheva Yu.A., Krylov A.A., Nikolskiy V.M. Application of Keggin type phospho-tungstovanadic heteropoly acid as sensitive material for car-bon monoxide sensor. ChemChemTech [Izv. Vyssh. Uchebn. Zaved. Khim. Khim. Tekhnol.]. 2021. V. 64. N 2. P. 6265. (in Russian). DOI: 10.6060/ivkkt.20216402.6281.
15. Nushtaeva A.V., Vilkova N.G. Hydrophobization of silica parti-cles with various cationic surfactants. ChemChemTech [Izv. Vyssh. Uchebn. Zaved. Khim. Khim. Tekhnol.]. 2021. V. 64. N 3. P. 41-45. (in Russian). DOI: 10.6060/ivkkt.20216403.6321.
16. Efimova N.V. The influence of environmental factors on the respiratory morbidity of the population of the northern re-gions. Modern problems of science and education. 2016. N 6. 74 p. (in Russian).
17. Chashchin V.P. Characteristics of the main risk factors for health disorders of the population living in the territory of active nature use in the Arctic. Human ecology. 2014. N 1. P. 3-12. (in Russian).
18. Gilman A. Public health and the effects of contaminants. In: Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP). Human health in the Arctic. Oslo, Norway. 2009. P. 89-143.
19. Karaulova A.V. Clinical immunology. M. MIA. 1999. P. 318-321. (in Russian).
20. Mikheeva G.H., Gataullin I.G., Biktemirova R.G. The ecological situation as a risk factor for the formation of the incidence of oncological pathology in the Ulyanovsk region. Volga Oncological Bulletin. 2012. N 4. P. 12-14. (in Russian).
21. Kuletsan A.L., Marchuk N.A. Analysis of the use of fresh water in the Russian Federation. Ros. Khim. Zh. 2022. V. 66. N 2. P. 7177 (in Russian). DOI: 10.6060/rcj.2022662.11.
22. Bondin V.I., Pochekaeva V.I., Popova T.V. Formation of the state of health of the child population in territories with high anthropogenic load. Valeologiya. 2011. N 4. P. 7-10. (in Russian).
23. Gorshkov A.I., Cherkasova L.V., Osipova E.M. Complex hygienic assessment of the environment and children's health in the Northern Administrative District of Moscow. Hygiene and sanitation. 2012. N 2. P. 77-79. (in Russian).
Marchuk N.A., Kulentsan A.L. The influence of pollutants on morbidity in the Southern Federal District. Modern high-tech technologies. Regional application. 2020. N 3 (63). P. 129-138. (in Russian).
25. Makrushin N.A., Gartman V.L., Zamuruev O.V., Weyn-bender A.Ya., Dulnev A.V. Influence of surface-active sub-stances on impregnation process in production of methane conversion catalysts. ChemChemTech [Izv. Vyssh. Uchebn. Zaved. Khim. Khim. Tekhnol.]. 2020. V. 63. N 8. P. 66-72 (in Russian). DOI: 10.6060/ivkkt.20206308.6075.
26. Menshova I.I., Zabolotnaya E., Chelnokov V.V., Gara-badzhiu A.V. Adsorption of organic substances using zeo-lites. ChemChemTech [Izv. Vyssh. Uchebn. Zaved. Khim. Khim. Tekhnol.]. 2021. V. 64. N 8. P. 131-138 (in Russian). DOI: 10.6060/ivkkt.20216408.6427.
27. Pugacheva I.N., Karmanov A.V., Zueva S.B., De Michelis I., Ferella F., Molokanova L.V., Vegliò F. Heavy metal re-moval by cellulose-based textile waste product. Chem-ChemTech [Izv. Vyssh. Uchebn. Zaved. Khim. Khim. Tekhnol.]. 2020. V. 63. N 2. P. 105110. (in Russian). DOI: 10.6060/ivkkt.20206302.6098.
28. Yuzbekov M.A., Yuzbekov A.K. Comprehensive assessment of the quality of life of the population in the region. Fundamental research. 2014. N 3-2. P. 349-355. (in Russian).
29. Berezin N.B., Сhevela V.V., Mezhevich Zh.V., Ivanova V.Yu. Complexation in the system zinc (II)-chrome (III)-nickel (II)-glycine-water. ChemChemTech [Izv. Vyssh. Uchebn. Zaved. Khim. Khim. Tekhnol.]. 2021. V. 64. N 11. P. 4449. DOI: 10.6060/ivkkt.20216411.6401.
30. Grigoryeva I.O., Dresvyannikov A.F. Electrochemical synthesis of dispersed barium ferrite using anodic dissolution of metal. ChemChemTech [Izv. Vyssh. Uchebn. Zaved. Khim. Khim. Tekhnol.]. 2021. V. 64. N 4. P. 5966. DOI: 10.6060/ivkkt.20216404.6315.
31. Khobotova E.B., Hraivoronska I.V., Кaliuzhna Iu.S., Ihnatenko M.I. Sorption purification of wastewater from organic dyes using granulated blast-furnace slag. Chem-ChemTech [Izv. Vyssh. Uchebn. Zaved. Khim. Khim. Tekhnol.]. 2021. V. 64. N 6. P. 8994. DOI: 10.6060/ivkkt.20216406.6302.
32. Avilova М.М., Maryeva E.A., Popova O.V., Ivanova Т.G. Molecular modeling of adsorption of pollutant gases on cad-mium-containing polyacrylonitrile. ChemChemTech [Izv. Vyssh. Uchebn. Zaved. Khim. Khim. Tekhnol.]. 2020. V. 63. N 4. P. 4954. DOI: 10.6060/ivkkt.20206304.6008.
33. Wójtowicz R., Kocewiak K., Lipin A.A. Identification of rheological properties of poly(ethylene oxide) – water solu-tions. ChemChemTech [Izv. Vyssh. Uchebn. Zaved. Khim. Khim. Tekhnol.]. 2020. V. 63. N 9. P. 8287. DOI: 10.6060/ivkkt.20206309.6236.
34. Okhlobystin A.O., Kamyshnikova A.S., Oleinikova K.V., Storozhenko V.N., Pashchenko K.P., Berberova N.T. Theoretical and experimental study of the adsorption capac-ity of transition metal acetates in the process of desulfuriza-tion of a model hydrocarbon fuel. ChemChemTech [Izv. Vyssh. Uchebn. Zaved. Khim. Khim. Tekhnol.]. 2021. V. 64. N 12. P. 98104. DOI: 10.6060/ivkkt.20216411.6518.
35. Gusev G.I., Gushchin A.A., Grinevich V.I., Rybkin V.V., Izvekova Т.V., Sharonov A.V. Treatment of wastewater containing 2,4-dichlorophenol in dielectric barrier discharge plasma. ChemChemTech [Izv. Vyssh. Uchebn. Zaved. Khim. Khim. Tekhnol.]. 2020. V. 63. N 7. P. 8894. DOI: 10.6060/ivkkt.20206307.6182.
Опубликован
2022-12-09
Как цитировать
Львович, К., & Александровна, М. (2022). МОДЕЛИРОВАНИЕ И ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЕ ЗАБОЛЕВАЕМОСТИ НАСЕЛЕНИЯ Г. ИВАНОВО. Современные наукоёмкие технологии. Региональное приложение, 72(4), 75-83. извлечено от https://snt-isuct.ru/article/view/4855
Выпуск
Раздел
Инженерно-технически науки, машиностроение и технологии
