СТАТИСТИЧЕСКОЕ ИССЛЕДОВАНИЕ И ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЕ РЫНОЧНОЙ ДИНАМИКИ ОБЪЕМОВ ПРОИЗВОДСТВА ПРОДУКЦИИ СЕЛЬСКОГО ХОЗЯЙСТВА В РОССИИ
Аннотация
Данная статья посвящена исследованию изменения основных показателей валового сбора зерновых и зернобобовых культур в России. В работе представлены результаты исследования распределения и производства зерновых и зернобобовых культур на территории Российской Федерации более чем за 30 лет, для чего проанализированы данные с 1990 по 2022 гг. Подобраны модели динамического распределения валового сбора пшеницы, кукурузы, овса, зернобобовых культур, ржи и просо. Для всех этих зерновых культур наблюдается полиномиальная зависимость. Проведенный в работе анализ, основанный на статистических данных, позволил выделить наиболее значимые факторы такие, как: внесение минеральных и органических удобрений, посевные площади, парк основных видов техники (трактора, плуги и комбайны), которые оказывают влияние на объемы производства зерновых и зернобобовых культур. Полученная регрессионная модель показала, что на вариацию урожайности в рассматриваемый период статистически значимое влияние оказали только внесение минеральных и органических удобрений, посевные площади, а также парк основных видов техники. Т.е. с вероятностью 88% можно утверждать, что внесение удобрений привело к росту урожайности рассматриваемых зерновых культур. Таким образом полученные результаты могут быть полезны при планировании и производстве зерновых и зернобобовых культур на территории Российской Федерации.
Литература
Akhmetshina L.G. From grain to its processed products:
export potential and prospects. Agrarian Bulletin of the
Urals. 2022. N 9 (224). P. 71-86. (in Russian).
Marchuk N.A., Kulentsan A.L. Statistical study of grain
production in Russia. News of higher educational institutions. The series "Economics, Finance and Production
Management" [Ivekofin]. 2021. N 3 (49). P. 144-150. (in
Russian). DOI: 10.6060/ivecofin.2021493.561.
Magomedova T.G. Factors of increasing the efficiency of
grain production. Issues of structuring the economy. 2004.
N 3. P. 201-206. (in Russian).
Tutueva N.V., Korabeynikova O.A. On improving the
efficiency of grain production. Proceedings of the Orenburg
State Agrarian University. 2011. N 4 (32). P. 240-241.
Nasyrov Z.I. Reserves for improving the efficiency of grain
production. Agrarian Bulletin of the Urals. 2010. N 12 (79).
P. 96-98. (in Russian).
Ibiev G.Z. Economic assessment of the state and efficiency
of grain farming development in the Rostov region. In the
collection: Chayanov readings. Materials of the I International Scientific and Practical Conference on the Problems
of agricultural Economy development. 2020. P. 229-235. (in
Russian).
Kravchenko Yu.V. Improving the economic efficiency of
grain production and processing (based on the materials of
the Belgorod region). Economics, labor, management in agriculture. 2011. N 2 (7). P. 62-64. (in Russian).
Umudov B.M., Rodionov A.V. Analysis of foreign economic activity of business structures on commodity items of
grain crops and products of their deep processing. Industrial
economy. 2021. V. 1. N 2. P. 86-93. (in Russian).
Sukhareva V.N., Larina T.N., Pavlenko O.V. Economic
and statistical analysis of the factors of increasing the yield
of grain crops and the economic efficiency of grain production in agricultural organizations of the Orenburg region.
Proceedings of the Orenburg State Agrarian University.
N 6 (38). P. 141-144. (in Russian).
Gainutdinov I.G., Zaripova T.T. Factors of increasing the
efficiency of grain production in the Russian Federation. A
young scientist. 2020. N 24 (314). P. 78-79. (in Russian).
Khamidullova M.T., Asadullin N.M. Efficiency of grain
production in the Russian Federation. The vector of the
economy. 2018. N 11 (29). 138 p. (in Russian).
Artyukhin O.A., Ponedelkov A.V., Omelchenko I.V.
Doctrinal foundations of food security in modern Russia.
Science and education: economy and economics; entrepreneurship; law and management. 2021. N 4 (131). P. 140-
(in Russian).
Shmakova A.V. Analysis of the yield of grain crops and factors
affecting its level (on the example of agricultural organizations
of the Krasnodar Territory). Polythematic online electronic scientific journal of the Kuban State Agrarian University. 2015. N
P. 1566-1576. (in Russian).
Kulentsan A.L., Marchuk N.A. Analysis of crop production volumes in various farms. Bulletin of the Mari State
University. The series "Agricultural sciences. Economic
Sciences". 2020. V. 6. N 1. P. 92-100. (in Russian). DOI:
30914/2411-9687-2020-6-1-92-100.
Cherpitskiy S.N., Korolev L.V., Tarshis M.Yu. Mathematical modeling of the bulk materials mixing process in a
drum-blade mixer. ChemChemTech [Izv. Vyssh. Uchebn.
Zaved. Khim. Khim. Tekhnol.]. 2022. V. 65. N 9. P.
120. DOI: 10.6060/ivkkt.20226509.6504. DOI:
6060/ivkkt.20226509.6504.
Kulentsan A.L., Marchuk N.A. Analysis of crop production volumes in various farms. Bulletin of the Mari State
University. The series "Agricultural sciences. Economic
Sciences". 2020. V. 6. N 1. P. 92-100. (in Russian). DOI:
30914/2411-9687-2020-6-1-92-100.
Meshalkin V.P., Shinkevich A.I., Malysheva T.V. System
analysis of the efficiency of the use of secondary energy resources in a circular economy. ChemChemTech [Izv. Vyssh.
Uchebn. Zaved. Khim. Khim. Tekhnol.]. 2021. V. 64. N 8. P.
-89. (in Russian). DOI: 10.6060/ivkkt.20216408.6433.
Sukhareva V.N., Larina T.N., Pavlenko O.V.
Economicostatistical analysis of factors for increasing grain
yield and economic efficiency of grain production in agricultural organizations of the Orenburg region. Proceedings
of the Orenburg State Agrarian University. 2012. N 6 (38).
P. 141-144. (in Russian)
Kulentsan A.L., Marchuk N.A. The experience of using
correlation and regression analysis in the study of morbidity
in children aged 0-14 years. Modern high-tech technologies.
Regional application. 2022. N 2 (70). P. 69-77. (in Russian). DOI: 10.6060/snt.20227002.0009.
Tyrtygin V.N., Deniskovets A.A., Labutin A.N. Mathematical and statistical model of purification in a highly gradient magnetic field of hydrogenated fat from a suspended
catalyst. ChemChemTech [Izv. Vyssh. Uchebn. Zaved.
Khim. Khim. Tekhnol.]. 2021. V. 64. N 6. P. 83-88. (in Russian). DOI: 10.6060/ivkkt.20216406.6410.
Kulentsan A.L., Marchuk N.A. Modeling and forecasting
the incidence of the population of Ivanovo. Modern hightech technologies. Regional application. 2022. N 4 (72). P.
-83. (in Russian). DOI: 10.6060/snt.20227204.00010.
Malygin A.A. Social contact as a tool for the sustainable
development of private farms. Modern high-tech technologies. Regional application. 2021. N 3 (67). P. 31-36. (in
Russian). DOI:10.6060/snt.20216703.0004.
Sizova O.V., Berendeeva A.B., Rychikhina N.S. Using
the modeling method in the analysis of mortality factors of
the able-bodied population in the regions of Russia. Modern
high-tech technologies. Regional application. 2020. N 2
(62). P. 62-73. (in Russian).
